Can the U.S. team be funded through the quiet months?

Use evidence for your customers, not a regional stereotype

A business with demand that varies through the year needs a dated cash schedule. Identify what supports the pattern: orders, customer schedules or relevant prior operations. Do not assume a new U.S. offer follows your home market’s seasons or that an annual total arrives evenly.

British Business Bank’s seasonal-budget guidance distinguishes fixed and variable costs and recommends a weekly or monthly view. It supplies no U.S. seasonality or revenue pattern for this company.

Sources: British Business Bank: Mapping fixed/variable costs and a monthly or weekly seasonal budget

The year ends positive, but April is short

Fictional example: every table amount is in US$thousands. Opening cash is 35. Assume customer receipts and the related variable payments occur in the same month; variable cash cost is 40% of receipts. Fixed cash payments are 20 each month, including the specified management cover. No borrowing is included.

Reconcile the total and the low point

Receipts total US$460,000, variable payments US$184,000 and fixed payments US$240,000. Net cash movement is positive US$36,000, taking US$35,000 opening cash to US$71,000. March nevertheless closes US$1,000 below zero; April reaches the US$3,000 minimum shortfall. Busy months later in the year cannot pay those earlier bills.

Within these assumptions, address the first gap before March: at least US$1,000 is needed then and another US$2,000 before April, unless the full US$3,000 is available earlier or commitments change. That is not a standard reserve, financing approval or the complete requirement; omitted tax, capital, debt and financing costs could increase it. Do not add the same shortfall again as an operating expense.

Keep the monthly schedule beside the existing tool

An average US$38,333.33 of monthly receipts would erase the pattern that creates this gap. The current Cash runway tool models its stated burn, receipts, ramp and lag inputs; it cannot directly enter an arbitrary 12-month seasonal receipt/payment calendar. Keep this separate schedule and reconcile its annual totals.

Ask management who will update the schedule, which receipts are supported, which payments are committed and what changes before the low point. Any extra finance needs its actual availability, repayment and cost dates. A spreadsheet showing a year-end surplus is not evidence that those arrangements exist.